This is how the climate in Germany is changing:
Our climate future
Climate change on your doorstep
July 8, 2022
-
7 min. reading time
The summer is hot and dry, once again, and extreme weather such as heavy rain is also becoming more frequent due to climate change. In this century, the climate in Germany will continue to change significantly. Which regions will suffer more than others - and what better climate protection could do at home.
With this interactive tool, you can take a look at the climate future of more than 400 regions in Germany - and find out what better climate protection will bring to the place where you live.
Find out more about each climate metric and how they are changing.
It gets warmer
In Germany, temperatures are rising as a result of climate change. At the end of the 20th century, the average annual temperature was still 8.6 degrees Celsius; in the recent past, it has already reached 9.3 degrees. In the future, the temperature will continue to rise: To about 10.2 degrees by the middle of the century, and to about 10.7 degrees Celsius by the end of the century.
These are the average temperatures you can expect if the world continues with climate protection as it is now. The scientists have calculated different models for the scenario with moderate climate protection. This results in a projection range for Germany for the future. It ranges from 9.5 degrees to 11.2 degrees in the middle of the century. Incidentally, it will be warmest in the city of Cologne and in the region around Ludwigshafen.
Climate protection pays off: If the world actually sticks to the Paris target and limits global warming to well below two degrees, this will also be felt in Germany. In 2050, the average temperature would only be around 9.9 degrees.
By contrast, a third scenario in which all climate protection is abandoned and greenhouse gases are blown unchecked into the atmosphere is unlikely. In this case, the average temperature would rise to around 10.5 degrees by 2050, and even to 12.1 degrees by the end of the century.
More hot days
The number of hot days with temperatures above 30 degrees will also increase with the average temperature. In Germany, there were 5.2 hot days at the end of the 20th century; in the past 30 years, there have already been 8.9. By the middle of the century, there will be about 11.5 days; unless climate protection is seriously pursued, there would only be 8.6 hot days.
Extreme weather is much more complicated to project than, for example, the development of average temperatures. The range of different models used by scientists to calculate the climate future is correspondingly wide. In Germany, the projections for mid-century range from 9.4 to 17 hot days per year.
For humans, the intense heat is a problem. At high temperatures, the circulatory system is quickly overtaxed, and the risk of heart attacks, dehydration, heatstroke and heat cramps increases. Especially for overaged societies like in Germany, climate change poses a deadly danger. Individual hot days are not the only problem: hot days with temperatures above 30 degrees Celsius will occur more frequently in the future.
Heat periods become longer
In Germany, heat waves at the end of the 20th century lasted a maximum of 2.5 days on average over many years; the most recent average was 2.7 days. By the middle of the century, it will be up to 3.5 days. The longest hot spells will occur in the district of Groß-Gerau in Hesse.
The longer a period of heat lasts, the higher the health risk. Several days of high heat stress can get to even young and healthy people. If the body is then unable to cool down even at night, it becomes particularly dangerous. Another problem.
More nights without cooling
Because it also cools down less frequently at night. So-called tropical nights, when the temperature never drops below 20 degrees Celsius, were extremely rare in Germany in the past century. In the period from 1971 to 2000, there was an average of 0.1 tropical nights in Germany; in recent years, there have been 0.4 nights. In just under thirty years, with moderate climate protection, there will already be 1.1 nights, and by the end of the century there will even be 1.7 nights.
Even if mankind manages to reduce greenhouse gas emissions very quickly, there will be more frequent tropical nights in the future (0.8 nights at the end of the century). However, they will be much less frequent than in the other scenarios. Climate protection is therefore particularly worthwhile here. This is particularly evident in the region around Frankenthal (Palatinate) and the region around Ludwigshafen, where there will be the most tropical nights in Germany.
Much less frost and snow
The shift toward more heat is also noticeable at the other end of the thermometer: Frosty temperatures below zero degrees will become increasingly rare over the course of the century, meaning that winters will become milder. At the end of the 20th century, there were 85.8 frosty days; around 2050, there will still be about 58.8, and toward the end of the century, 46.8. Cologne will have the fewest frosty days in the future. This means that white Christmases will also become increasingly unlikely.
If the world were to meet the Paris target, the effects would be less dramatic. Even at the end of the century, there would still be about 65.8 days of frost per year in Germany.
With climate change, not only are temperatures rising in Germany, but precipitation is also changing - at least if you look at the details. On an annual average, there is hardly any change; even in 70 years, there will probably still be as much precipitation as in the 20th century. But rain (and less frequent snow) will be distributed differently over the seasons, and extreme weather will increase:
More rain in winter
In winter, there will be more precipitation in Germany in the future, as there is throughout Germany. Between 1971 and 2000, the average was 179.1 millimeters; by the middle of the century, it will be 195.6 millimeters, i.e. it will tend to be more. Freudenstadt in the northern Black Forest is expected to see the most rain and snow by mid-century.
When it rains, it pours
In summer, extreme rainfall in particular will increase. In Germany, heavy rainfall will increase significantly. In the past, there were an average of 4.3 days a year when more than 20 millimeters fell from the sky. Around 2050, there will be about 5 days, and 5.4 by the end of the century. Heavy rainfall is particularly frequent on the edge of the Alps, with the most days occurring in the Oberallgäu district.
Similar number of dry days
By contrast, there will be little change in the number of days without precipitation; in Germany, 235.9 days will remain dry by mid-century - about as often as in the past. Even if the number of dry days hardly changes over the whole year: In the summer months, it will remain dry more often in the future, with the exception of the coastal areas.
In view of the climate crisis, Germany must adapt: cities must take precautions to be prepared for heat waves and heavy rain. Houses must provide protection against both cold and extreme heat. Farmers must prepare for extended periods of drought.
But the consequences for nature are likely to be even greater.
Animal and plant habitats will change, grasses and trees will bloom earlier, and forests will be under drought stress in summer. And the risk of forest fires increases.
How high the wildfire risk is depends not only on the amount of recently fallen precipitation and the air temperature, but also on the humidity and wind strength. When it's hot, dry and windy, a forest fire can spread much faster - if there's enough combustible material. The forest fire index is calculated from all these values. In Germany, from a level four forest fire index, the authorities initiate preventive measures to reduce the risk of forest fires.
The risk of forest fires increases
In Germany, the number of days in July with a high forest fire index (level four or five) has already increased significantly: While there were only 1.4 days at the end of the last century, there are currently 4.2 days on which emergency services would have to put in a great deal of effort to fight a fire because it can spread easily.
The fact that the 2.8 days predicted for mid-century are lower than the current value does not mean that the risk of forest fires will be low in the future. Rather, it shows how exceptionally critical the situation has often already been in recent years.
However, the index does not allow any conclusion to be drawn about how often fires will actually break out. The fires first have to be ignited. And in past years, humans were mostly responsible for that.
It gets warmer
In Germany, temperatures are rising as a result of climate change. At the end of the 20th century, the average annual temperature was still 8.6 degrees Celsius; in the recent past, it has already reached 9.3 degrees. In the future, the temperature will continue to rise: To about 10.2 degrees by the middle of the century, and to about 10.7 degrees Celsius by the end of the century.
These are the average temperatures you can expect if the world continues with climate protection as it is now. The scientists have calculated different models for the scenario with moderate climate protection. This results in a projection range for Germany for the future. It ranges from 9.5 degrees to 11.2 degrees in the middle of the century. Incidentally, it will be warmest in the city of Cologne and in the region around Ludwigshafen.
Climate protection pays off: If the world actually sticks to the Paris target and limits global warming to well below two degrees, this will also be felt in Germany. In 2050, the average temperature would only be around 9.9 degrees.
By contrast, a third scenario in which all climate protection is abandoned and greenhouse gases are blown unchecked into the atmosphere is unlikely. In this case, the average temperature would rise to around 10.5 degrees by 2050, and even to 12.1 degrees by the end of the century.
More hot days
The number of hot days with temperatures above 30 degrees will also increase with the average temperature. In Germany, there were 5.2 hot days at the end of the 20th century; in the past 30 years, there have already been 8.9. By the middle of the century, there will be about 11.5 days; unless climate protection is seriously pursued, there would only be 8.6 hot days.
Extreme weather is much more complicated to project than, for example, the development of average temperatures. The range of different models used by scientists to calculate the climate future is correspondingly wide. In Germany, the projections for mid-century range from 9.4 to 17 hot days per year.
For humans, the intense heat is a problem. At high temperatures, the circulatory system is quickly overtaxed, and the risk of heart attacks, dehydration, heatstroke and heat cramps increases. Especially for overaged societies like in Germany, climate change poses a deadly danger. Individual hot days are not the only problem: hot days with temperatures above 30 degrees Celsius will occur more frequently in the future.
Heat periods become longer
In Germany, heat waves at the end of the 20th century lasted a maximum of 2.5 days on average over many years; the most recent average was 2.7 days. By the middle of the century, it will be up to 3.5 days. The longest hot spells will occur in the district of Groß-Gerau in Hesse.
The longer a period of heat lasts, the higher the health risk. Several days of high heat stress can get to even young and healthy people. If the body is then unable to cool down even at night, it becomes particularly dangerous. Another problem.
More nights without cooling
Because it also cools down less frequently at night. So-called tropical nights, when the temperature never drops below 20 degrees Celsius, were extremely rare in Germany in the past century. In the period from 1971 to 2000, there was an average of 0.1 tropical nights in Germany; in recent years, there have been 0.4 nights. In just under thirty years, with moderate climate protection, there will already be 1.1 nights, and by the end of the century there will even be 1.7 nights.
Even if mankind manages to reduce greenhouse gas emissions very quickly, there will be more frequent tropical nights in the future (0.8 nights at the end of the century). However, they will be much less frequent than in the other scenarios. Climate protection is therefore particularly worthwhile here. This is particularly evident in the region around Frankenthal (Palatinate) and the region around Ludwigshafen, where there will be the most tropical nights in Germany.
Much less frost and snow
The shift toward more heat is also noticeable at the other end of the thermometer: Frosty temperatures below zero degrees will become increasingly rare over the course of the century, meaning that winters will become milder. At the end of the 20th century, there were 85.8 frosty days; around 2050, there will still be about 58.8, and toward the end of the century, 46.8. Cologne will have the fewest frosty days in the future. This means that white Christmases will also become increasingly unlikely.
If the world were to meet the Paris target, the effects would be less dramatic. Even at the end of the century, there would still be about 65.8 days of frost per year in Germany.
With climate change, not only are temperatures rising in Germany, but precipitation is also changing - at least if you look at the details. On an annual average, there is hardly any change; even in 70 years, there will probably still be as much precipitation as in the 20th century. But rain (and less frequent snow) will be distributed differently over the seasons, and extreme weather will increase:
More rain in winter
In winter, there will be more precipitation in Germany in the future, as there is throughout Germany. Between 1971 and 2000, the average was 179.1 millimeters; by the middle of the century, it will be 195.6 millimeters, i.e. it will tend to be more. Freudenstadt in the northern Black Forest is expected to see the most rain and snow by mid-century.
When it rains, it pours
In summer, extreme rainfall in particular will increase. In Germany, heavy rainfall will increase significantly. In the past, there were an average of 4.3 days a year when more than 20 millimeters fell from the sky. Around 2050, there will be about 5 days, and 5.4 by the end of the century. Heavy rainfall is particularly frequent on the edge of the Alps, with the most days occurring in the Oberallgäu district.
Similar number of dry days
By contrast, there will be little change in the number of days without precipitation; in Germany, 235.9 days will remain dry by mid-century - about as often as in the past. Even if the number of dry days hardly changes over the whole year: In the summer months, it will remain dry more often in the future, with the exception of the coastal areas.
In view of the climate crisis, Germany must adapt: cities must take precautions to be prepared for heat waves and heavy rain. Houses must provide protection against both cold and extreme heat. Farmers must prepare for extended periods of drought.
But the consequences for nature are likely to be even greater.
Animal and plant habitats will change, grasses and trees will bloom earlier, and forests will be under drought stress in summer. And the risk of forest fires increases.
How high the wildfire risk is depends not only on the amount of recently fallen precipitation and the air temperature, but also on the humidity and wind strength. When it's hot, dry and windy, a forest fire can spread much faster - if there's enough combustible material. The forest fire index is calculated from all these values. In Germany, from a level four forest fire index, the authorities initiate preventive measures to reduce the risk of forest fires.
The risk of forest fires increases
In Germany, the number of days in July with a high forest fire index (level four or five) has already increased significantly: While there were only 1.4 days at the end of the last century, there are currently 4.2 days on which emergency services would have to put in a great deal of effort to fight a fire because it can spread easily.
The fact that the 2.8 days predicted for mid-century are lower than the current value does not mean that the risk of forest fires will be low in the future. Rather, it shows how exceptionally critical the situation has often already been in recent years.
However, the index does not allow any conclusion to be drawn about how often fires will actually break out. The fires first have to be ignited. And in past years, humans were mostly responsible for that.
The weather in Germany will change as a result of climate change, and many of the developments have already begun. Heat waves and flood disasters on our own doorstep show how uncomfortable, sometimes even deadly, these changes can be. Yet mankind has it in its own hands how dramatically the climate will change. If we succeed in quickly reducing greenhouse gas emissions worldwide to zero, the most serious consequences of climate change can be prevented.
Methodik
What scenarios do we show?
Climate change is complex, especially at the regional level. In order to estimate the changes in temperature and precipitation and their consequences, the Helmholtz Climate Research Center Gerics and the German Weather Service have developed extensive models, which we have used in this research.
Depending on how much greenhouse gas mankind will still emit, the models arrive at different results: The most likely path currently corresponds roughly to a scenario developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change called RCP4.5, according to which the Earth would warm by about 2.5 to 3 degrees Celsius by 2100 compared to the pre-industrial era. We refer to this scenario here as "moderate climate change mitigation."
Average temperatures can be calculated quite well, but rare extreme weather events are more complicated. To better estimate the consequences of heavy rain or heat, scientists therefore often use the more extreme scenario RCP8.5, which assumes more severe global warming with poor climate protection. The difference between the two scenarios is rather small until the middle of the century.
At the 2015 World Climate Conference in Paris, a very large number of countries pledged to limit global warming to well below two degrees. To really achieve this goal, truly effective climate protection would be needed, and emissions would have to be reduced very quickly. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has named this scenario RCP2.6.
Which sources do we use?
Der Deutsche Wetterdienst (DWD) und das Helmholtz-Klimaforschungszentrum Gerics stellen auf ihren Seiten ausführliche Beschreibungen ihrer Klimamodelle bereit. Die historischen und zukünftigen Werte für Heiße Tage, Tropische Nächte und den Waldbrandindex in diesem Stück sind vom DWD. Für die Mitte des Jahrhunderts sind Mittelwerte für den Zeitraum zwischen 2041 und 2070 dargestellt, der Zeitraum Ende des Jahrhunderts ist 2071 bis 2100. Der historische Vergleichswert zeigt den Mittelwert der Jahre 1971 bis 2000.
Die Daten für Niederschlag, Starkregen, Trockentage, die maximale Dauer von Hitzeperioden, Frosttage und die Durchschnittstemperatur stammen von Gerics. Der historische Vergleichszeitraum ist auch hier 1971 bis 2000, der Wert für die Mitte des Jahrhunderts 2036 bis 2065 und Ende des Jahrhunderts 2069 bis 2098.
We have calculated the current values ourselves from DWD data. The basis in each case is grid data for the years 1991 to 2020 or, in the case of the maximum duration of hot spells, 1986 to 2015, since more recent data is not yet available here.
What does the median mean and why is there a light-colored area in the graphs?
The scientists have calculated not just one, but several different models for each climate protection scenario. These models each produce a slightly different projection for the future. A median is formed from all the results, representing the most probable climate future. The area with a light background in the graph shows the range in which the results of all models lie. There is a special feature for the hot days, tropical nights and the forest fire index: Here, the models with the most extreme values upwards and downwards are not shown.
For which regions do the values apply?
An individual climate outlook is available for each of the 401 counties and independent cities. For areas of less than 400 square kilometers, the county or city is combined with all adjacent counties and cities to form a region. We always show the averaged value of a region.
What does "special change" mean?
In the interactive tool, a climate characteristic value for a selected region is marked as a value with "special change" if the region belongs to the 60 most changing regions in Germany both in the middle and at the end of the century (0.85-quantile of the medians in each case).
All data for download
You can download the data set we compiled here. Please make sure to cite the DWD, Gerics and the Süddeutsche Zeitung as sources when using the data.
Team
Text
Sören Müller-Hansen, Oliver Schnuck
Daten
Sören Müller-Hansen, Oliver Schnuck
Infografik
Jonas Jetzig, Stefan Kloiber
Development
Stefan Kloiber
Digital Design
Sandra Hartung
Digital Storytelling
Stefan Kloiber, Sören Müller-Hansen, Sandra Hartung, Oliver Schnuck
Testing
Malte Hornbergs
Editing
Sabrina Ebitsch, Christoph von Eichhorn
Final Editing
Florian Kaindl
Intro-Collage
Gettyimages; SZ