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The Birth-Rate Crisis Isn’t as Bad as You’ve Heard—It’s Worse

Humanity is set to start shrinking several decades ahead of schedule.

First published in The Atlantic on June 30, 2025

by Marc Novicoff, The Atlantic
July 3, 2025 | reading time: 7 Min.

First, the bad news: Global fertility is falling fast. The aging populations of rich countries are relying on ever fewer workers to support their economy, dooming those younger generations to a future of higher taxes, higher debt, or later retirement—or all three. Birth rates in middle-income countries are also plummeting, putting their economic development at risk. Practically the only countries set to continue growing are desperately poor.

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