Pakistan's decision to boycott the Bonn conference is a great mistake. The staggering loss of life it suffered from the US bombings of its border outposts in which 25 soldiers including two officers were killed has shocked the nation, but there is a great deal of domestic politics at play here. The civilian government has been at odds with the army over the resignation of Hussain Haqqani Pakistan's ambassador in Washington and his possible involvement in a memo that asked the US to take action against Pakistan's generals. The government has now gone over board in siding with the army over the deaths of its soldiers.
Ahmed Rashid ist a Pakistani journalist and best-selling author of several books about Afghanistan, Pakistan and Central Asia.
(Foto: AFP)Bonn, a meeting of the international community with ninety foreign ministers taking part would lay down the world's future course in Afghanistan until the West's withdrawal in 2014. Pakistan is an essential component of that process. It needs to be there and take part. It already faces severe diplomatic isolation in the region and amongst its allies despite its on going tensions with the US. By silencing its own voice at such an important conference it is blaming not just the US but the entire global community,it is creating further doubts about its intentions over its future role in Afghanistan, something that will deeply trouble the Afghan government and it is signalling that it wants its own solution for Afghanistan rather than one that is in step with the world.
Bonn 2 will reassert the commitment of the international community towards helping Afghanistan after 2014 when most Western military forces will have left. That commitment is becoming more necessary as many Afghans fear a break down in law and order after 2014.
At the same time in order to break the mould of the plethora of sterile conferences held this year, there are some hopes of a breakthrough on reconciliation between the Afghan government and the Taliban.
But what the delegates must also pledge to do at Bonn 2 is to grapple with the problems the Western alliance is leaving behind in Afghanistan and help the Afghan government find solutions for them. Ninety foreign ministers leading over one thousand delegates, thirty four members of Afghan civil society and three thousand journalists will be at Bonn to commemorate the first Bonn conference in 2001 that created the Afghan interim government led by Hamid Karzai.
It is still hoped that a real break through on the ground may take place with the announcement at Bonn, that the Taliban, the US, Qatar and Germany will agree to open an office for the Taliban in Doha, Qatar so that talks between all sides can continue in a more permanent manner. However much depends on how quickly the Americans, who are deeply divided on the issue of talks with the Taliban agree among themselves.
Earlier hopes that the Taliban may send representatives to Bonn 2 appear to have been dashed by the lack of progress in the secret talks, following the murder of peace advocate and leader of the High Peace Council, Burhanuddin Rabbani on September 20. Well informed sources say the secret talks begun earlier this year between the US and the Taliban brokered by Germany and Qatar have continued - even after Rabbani's death but progress has been slow.
The ninety nations will no doubt give a rhetorical endorsement to continued economic aid, training to the Afghan armed forces and help in governance after 2014, although many Afghan officials question whether economic aid will flow in reality given the worsening recession in the US and Europe.
However there are several problems which the international community is ignoring at its peril. First is the danger of an economic collapse in Afghanistan after Western forces leave. Tens of thousands of young Afghans who work at Western military bases and embassies will be rendered jobless - the very generation that the West has nurtured over the past decade.
90 percent of the US $ 17 billion Afghan budget is foreign funded while US $ 5-6 billion dollars is needed to maintain the newly trained Afghan army. Future funding for all this is promised by the West but no concrete steps have been taken to guarantee the money and reassure the Afghans. The Afghan economy cannot sustain its population at present leave alone the infrastructure the West has built.
Secondly the internal problems faced by Afghans multiply. They include increased ethnic tensions between Pashtuns and non-Pashtuns - which are described by some Afghans as deteriorating rapidly, the reluctance of many non-Pashtuns to accept reconciliation with the Taliban, the continued uncertainty about the reconciliation process and the future of the Afghan constitution.
2014 is also when the next presidential elections are due. Although Hamid Karzai cannot stand for another term and the field will be open to all comers, there are rising demands that the constitution be reopened, examined and changed from a presidential form of government to a parliamentary system. There are demands that the highly centralized powers of the central government be devolved to the provinces and decentralization and devolution takes place.
Moreover if peace talks with the Taliban bring about a ceasefire and then there are substantial power sharing negotiations between the government and the Taliban, it is likely that the Taliban will also want to reopen the constitution and demand changes to it. All sections of Afghan society are demanding political changes within the next twenty four months, but neither the Afghan government nor the international community are prepared for this. Any such changes must be carried out peacefully through debate and not force of arms.
Thirdly there is the regional problem, the role of the neighbouring states and the continued interference by some of them including Pakistan, Iran and India. Last month's Istanbul conference was supposed to ease regional tensions. In fact it worsened them by exposing how deep the divisions are between countries.
Pakistan which hosts the bulk of the Taliban leadership is critical to any settlement. Unless the Pakistan military cooperates with the Afghans and the international community, acts more flexibly than it is at present and the ever worsening US-Pakistan improve, progress on reconciliation will be deadlocked and so will improved Afghan-Pakistani relations.
An enormous amount is at stake in Afghanistan and a great deal needs to be done before Western forces leave. Bonn must take a deep look at all these problems and come up with some answers.
A German version of Ahmed Rashid's article is available here.